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Subject: TELECOM Digest V23 #175

TELECOM Digest     Fri, 9 Apr 2004 20:03:00 EDT    Volume 23 : Issue 175

Inside This Issue:                            Editor: Patrick A. Townson

    Part 2 of 2 Ala carte Cable TV  (Neal McLain)
    Subject: Re: Livewire: When You've Got to Google Better, Ask (J Beaman)
    Re: Cell Phones Exceed Land Lines in Maine (jmeissen@aracnet.com)
    Commentary: Heads up VoIP - Regulation Incoming (VOIP News)
    Re: IBM System/360 40 Years Old Today (Lisa Hancock)

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----------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Fri, 09 Apr 2004 08:17:39 -0500
From: Neal McLain <nmclain@annsgarden.com>
Subject: Part 2 of 2 Ala Carte Cable TV 


       ========================================
             ACCESS CONTROL  (DBS ONLY)
       ========================================

All DBS signals are broadcast from a geostationary satellite [7].
Satellites intended for DBS service are spaced 9 degrees (or more)
apart within the geostationary orbit to accommodate small-aperture
(18-inch diameter) receiving antennas.  The DBS band consists of 32
transponders arranged in a 500-MHz block transmitted in the following
frequency bands:

        Uplink   17.3-17.8 GHz
        Downlink 12.2-12.7 GHz

The downlink footprint for most services covers the entire continental
United States; supplementary spot beams are used for Alaska and
Hawaii.  In some cases, spot beams may be employed for
"local-into-local" service (delivery of local broadcast television
stations to subscribers in specific DMAs), allowing the same downlink
frequencies to be reused simultaneously in different geographic areas.
At any given geographic location, all relevant signals are delivered
to the subscriber's receiving antenna.

Each transponder utilized for DBS service relays a digitized data
stream containing one or more video signals with accompanying
multi-channel audio and metadata.  The video signals are digitally
compressed so that several video streams (virtual channels) can be
multiplexed into each data stream.  The encoding schemes used by
DirecTV and EchoStar are mutually incompatible: EchoStar uses
MPEG-standard 188-byte data packets, while DirecTV uses 132-byte data
packets; audio and metadata protocols are also different.

Each DBS subscriber must own a receiver of a specific design intended
for use with a specific DBS service.  The signal received from the
satellite includes metadata used by the receiver to display channel
numbers, program guides, and similar information, and to identify
authorized signals.  Each receiver is fitted with a card slot to
accept an access card issued by the DBS company.  Each authorized
receiver's serial number is matched to a specific access card; the
receiver will operate only when the proper access card is in place.

DBS receivers are available on the open market; used receivers are
often available on eBay.  DBS resellers often provide free receivers
for new customers who agree to one-year contracts.  Subscriber
ownership of receivers obviously saves DBS companies a lot of up-front
capital; furthermore, subscribers are less likely to abuse receivers
that they own.

For DBS companies, digital receivers offer many of the same advantages
that digital STBs offer cable companies:

   - Video signals can be digitally compressed, so that several video
     streams (virtual channels) can be crammed into each transponder.

   - Scrambling is 100% effective.  Unauthorized signals are simply not
     decoded; the receiver generates a black-burst video signal to
     replace each unauthorized satellite signal.

   - Access control is implemented in software; consequently, tier
     upgrades and downgrades in can be accomplished remotely without
     a site visit.  Many tiers or combinations of tiers can be
     accommodated.  DirecTV and EchoStar each offers local-into-local
     service, as well as extensive selections of foreign-language tiers
     for domestic audiences (EchoStar's Arabic-language tiers even
     include Aljazeera).

DBS receivers do, in fact, make individual-video-signal a-la-carte
offerings technically feasible for every level of service, including
basic (indeed, the very concept of "basic" service would be rendered
obsolete by full a-la-carte pricing).  But DBS operators have chosen
not to offer their services on this basis, presumably for some fairly
obvious reasons:

   - Within the United States, federal regulations permitting local-
     into-local carriage of television broadcast stations stipulate that
     if a DBS company carries one station in a DMA, it must carry all
     stations in the DMA, and it must place them on "contiguous
     channels."  This block of contiguous channels is, in effect, a tier.

   - DBS companies' carriage agreements with most non-broadcast program
     suppliers require carriage in the basic tier.

   - Like CATV companies, DBS companies bury their infrastructure costs
     in their basic-service prices.  Offering full a-la-carte pricing
     would require a new pricing structure that would include some sort
     of flat connection charge to cover infrastructure costs.

   - DBS companies apparently like to package their products in ways
     that, for marketing purposes, can be easily compared with (or
     contrasted against) competitive CATV packages.

Descriptions of program tiers offered by major DBS companies are at:
         DirecTV       <http://tinyurl.com/2jk4h>.
         Dish Network  <http://tinyurl.com/3564o>.
         Sky Angel     <http://tinyurl.com/2hukc>.
         VOOM          <http://tinyurl.com/37tte>.

A list of all communications satellites currently in orbit over ITU
Region 2 (North and South America) is available at
<http://www.lyngsat.com/america.shtml>.  Clicking on a satellite name
brings up a list of transponder assignments.

       ========================================
               ACCESS-CONTROL COSTS
                  (CATV and DBS)
       ========================================

If we compare the technologies used by CATV companies vis-a-vis DBS
companies, there are many obvious differences.  But there is also a
striking similarity: all channels are delivered to the subscriber
premises, and access control is located at, or near, the premises.

Read that again:

        ALL CHANNELS ARE DELIVERED TO THE SUBSCRIBER PREMISES,
        AND ACCESS CONTROL IS LOCATED AT, OR NEAR, THE PREMISES.

Ok, so what?

So this: The whole a-la-carte pricing issue seems to be based on the
assumption that there's a linear relationship between the price of the
basic tier and the number of channels carried in the basic tier.  This
assumption is simply not true: the price of the basic tier includes
the amount needed by the MVPD to cover its infrastructure costs.
These costs are essentially fixed, independent of the number of
channels that any given customer receives:

   - A CATV company must deliver every channel every tap throughout
     the entire outside plant whether or not any potential customer
     subscribes to any of them.

   - A DBS company must deliver every channel to every square
     inch of the United States whether or not anybody subscribes
     to any of them.

This is, of course, why every CATV company and every DBS company
requires every subscriber to "buy through" the basic tier before
purchasing any upper tier.

The tiers themselves are priced to recover the incremental costs that
they incur: higher license fees; reduced local-ad-insertion revenue;
higher administrative costs for record-keeping and billing; added
labor and vehicle costs for site visits.

A recent example of this erroneous assumption: Tom Betz [TD 23:145;
23:147], wrote:

 > Who do I have to bribe to stop getting (and paying for) ALL the
 > useless sports channels that I just program the TV to skip?
 > It could easily cut my cable bill in half.

Betz didn't identify those "useless sports channels," but let's assume
they're ESPN and some of its offspring, in which case the license fees
would be somewhere around $3.00 or $4.00 per month.

Suppose that Betz's favorite CATV company actually did remove these
channels from the basic tier and move ("migrate" in FCC-talk) them to
an upper tier (call it the USC tier).  This change would reduce the
CATV company's basic-tier license fee, but it would not reduce its
infrastructure costs by one penny.  Assuming that the company passed
the license-fee savings along to its basic-tier customers, Betz's
cable bill would drop, at most, by that $3.00 or $4.00 license fee
reduction.

Betz's neighbors who happen to like those sports channels would now
have to subscribe to the USC tier *and* the basic tier.  What would
that cost?

I can't speak for any particular program supplier, but I can cite a
few obvious reasons why the USC tier would cost a lot more than the
$3.00 or $4.00 that Betz would be saving.

The program supplier would incur an immediate reduction in license-fee
revenue, and an immediate reduction in the number of potential viewers
supporting its advertising base.  In response, it would almost
certainly increase the license fee (assuming that it didn't just sue
the CATV company for breach-of-contract for making the change in the
first place).

One could, of course, argue that the program supplier could partially
offset these losses by charging higher advertising rates.  To an
extent, that's a legitimate argument.  The old advertising-industry
adage that "paid advertising is worth more than free advertising"
certainly applies here: any viewer who pays for access to the USC tier
is more likely to watch the USC tier.

But it's unlikely that increasing the advertising rates would generate
enough revenue to offset the losses resulting from the smaller number
of viewers.  Advertising prices are economically elastic; at some
point, advertisers are simply going to balk at paying higher prices
for fewer viewers.

 From the CATV company's point of view:

   - The license fees for the USC channels would be increased
     substantially.

   - Operating costs would rise because of the administrative costs
     associated with the new tier.  Installing security devices to block
     unauthorized viewing would be a big expense, especially if n-traps
     were required.  General office overhead would spike for a few
     months until subscribers got used to the change.

   - The local-ad-insertion revenue base for the USC channels would be
     lower.  The CATV company might be able to offset some of this loss
     by raising its advertising rates (that old ad-industry adage applies
     here as well), but it's doubtful that it could recover all of the
     lost revenue.

In other words, by migrating these channels, the CATV company would
incur higher license fees, higher operating costs, and lower
advertising revenue.  To recover these costs, it would have to bury
them in the subscription fee for the USC-tier.  Consequently, the
retail price for this tier would be a far more than $3.00 or $4.00 per
month -- perhaps as much as $10.00 or $15.00.

How would local sports fans react to this change?  Which faction would
file more complaints with the LFA: sports fans or everybody else?
Which side would the local newspaper's editorial page favor?  Which
faction would make the most noise at the inevitable public hearing
before the City Council?

       ========================================
             RETAIL A-LA-CARTE PRICING
                  (CATV and DBS)
       ========================================

Now let's go back to the original question and rephrase it in the
context of the previous discussion: if cable television and DBS
companies can offer services in tiers, why can't they just put each
channel on a separate tier and offer everything on an a-la-carte
basis?

The short answer is: they can.  But there are a few problems that we need 
to consider first:

NON-BROADCAST PROGRAMMING CONTRACT CARRIAGE REQUIREMENTS.

Problem: As long as broadcast networks have the Congressionally-
sanctioned right to bundle non-broadcast programming with
retransmission-consent for co-owned O&O broadcast stations (and force
them onto the basic tiers), no MVPD will be able to offer any of those
non-broadcast services on an a-la-carte basis.

Possible solution: Congress will have to change this law as a
prerequisite to any sort of rational discussion about a-la-carte
pricing.  Of course, NAB will mount a fierce opposition, but if
Congress really wants a-la-carte pricing, I don't think it has much
choice.

INFRASTRUCTURE COST RECOVERY.

Problem: The basic tier currently includes, among other things,
infrastructure-cost recovery and non-broadcast programming.  If
non-broadcast programming is removed from basic and offered
a-la-carte, some alternate means of infrastructure cost recovery will
be necessary.

Possible solution: Impose a flat monthly access fee of, say $20 or
$30, on every subscriber.  This would undoubtedly be perceived by the
public as a new scheme for jacking up the price, but if every CATV and
every DBS instituted it simultaneously (with an appropriate barrage of
press releases), I think it could be done.

A CATV could include local broadcast stations (and possibly PEG access
channels) as part of the cost-recovery fee, and continue calling it
"basic."  But of course, this too would be perceived as a way to jack
up the price even if the price actually went down.

CATV ACCESS CONTROL.

Problem: It's financially impossible for any CATV to implement
a-la-carte pricing right now for any analog channels, simply because
of the cost of sending out a technician (remember that $50 per trip)
for every change in every subscriber's favorite-channel list.  (At
least DBS doesn't have this particular problem.)

Possible solution: Wait a while.  This problem is going to be
insurmountable for the next several years, but it will eventually go
away by itself.  By 2010 or 2015, when the transition to digital
television is complete (or at least past that magic 85% threshold),
the cable industry will finally be able to move all basic-tier
services to digital, drop all analog channels, and vaporize all those
n-traps, p-traps, and analog boxes in a Great Ceremonial Bonfire.
Once every CATV subscriber possesses a 100%-secure, subscriber-owned,
addressable digital box (or the equivalent circuitry built into
consumer electronics equipment), access-control costs will drop
dramatically.

SUBSCRIBER CHURN.

Problem: Subscribers would want to churn in and out of some channels
they don't watch on a regular basis.  Program providers obviously
would require each MVPD to establish procedures to prevent this
behavior.

To cite an example close to home: if I were paying my DirecTV bill on
an a-la-carte basis, I would want to subscribe to USA Network for two
days a year for the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show, then drop off
for the rest of the year.

Possible solutions:

   - Institute fixed-term contracts, like cell phone companies use.
     When you first sign up for service, you select the channels you
     want, and agree to a one-year contract.  Add a channel later, and
     you pay an upgrade fee.  Try to drop a channel later and you find
     that you're locked in for the duration of the contract.  Or else
     you have to pay a downgrade fee (hey, didn't you read the fine
     print?).

  -  Turn the problem into an opportunity.  Marketing departments would
     jump on this just like they do now with tiers: short-term deals for
     specific channels for specific time periods.  Special packages for
     every holiday ... all sorts of gift-card packages ... "season
     tickets" for sports events ... pay-per-view time blocks (hey, this
     works for Playboy TV: $7.99 gets you a four-hour block).

Maybe USA would even sell me the dog-show.

LICENSE FEES.

Problem: A-la-carte pricing will dramatically reduce each
non-broadcast programmer's potential audience.  How programmers react
to this situation is a matter of speculation, but it seems safe to say
that license fees will rise substantially.

A hypothetical example: a certain programmer expects a 25% a-la-carte
penetration rate.  If it expects to maintain its license-fee revenue,
it must increase the license fee by a factor of four.  A service
presently licensed for $0.50 per month would rise to $2.00; good old
ESPN, presently at $2.61, would shoot up to $10.44.  If the programmer
expects to maintain its advertising revenue, it must either raise the
license fee even further, raise its advertising rates, or both.

Possible solutions: Live with it.  This is the price to be paid for 
a-la-carte pricing.

Now let's try a little experiment.  Let's try to figure out what a
hypothetical subscriber's bill might look like with a-al-carte
pricing.  We start with some assumptions:

   - We can ignore the broadcast/non-broadcast bundle problem.

   - We can ignore the CATV industry's analog access-control problem.

   - The hypothetical subscriber has six favorite non-broadcast
     channels (not including ESPN), each of which has a pre-a-la-carte
     license fee of $0.50.  Each programmer expects a 25% a-la-carte
     penetration rate, so the license fee jumps to $2.00.

   - The monthly infrastructure fee is $20.00 (this is a wild guess
     on my part, but we have to start somewhere).  For CATV subscribers,
     this fee also includes local broadcast stations and PEG access
     channels.

   - The CATV franchise fee is 5% of gross revenues, which equates to
     5.26% of net.

   - State and local taxes total 8%, and apply to CATV and DBS.

This hypothetical bill would look like this:

                                            CATV   DIRECTV  ECHOSTAR
   Access charge ......................... $20.00   $20.00   $20.00
   Six non-broadcast services, @ $2.00 ...  12.00    12.00    12.00
   All local broadcast stations ..........   0.00     3.00     5.99
   All PEG access channels ...............   0.00      N/A      N/A
   Franchise fee .........................   1.68      N/A      N/A
   State and local taxes .................   2.69     2.80     3.04
   TOTAL ................................. $36.38    37.80    41.03

That's for just six non-broadcast services and all local stations, but
without ESPN, without any premium services (HBO, Showtime, etc.), and
without considering churn.  Add a few more non-broadcast channels, or
add ESPN, and where are you?

Here's a homework assignment for <ellis@no.spam>, Tom Betz, Paul
Robinson, and anybody else that's interested: using the above
assumptions, calculate your own hypothetical a-la-carte CATV or DBS
bill for your particular set of favorite channels, and let us know now
it compares with your current bill.  Feel free to change any of the
assumptions, but let us know what you changed.

And don't forget:

   - Be careful to distinguish between broadcast and non-broadcast
     channels.  Foreign-language, home-shopping, and religious channels
     can be either.  And sometimes both: TBN, for example, is both in
     several markets, where a local broadcast station carries the same
     satellite feed that the CATV does.

   - Non-broadcast services that are free to the MVPD don't count: home
     shopping, NASA-TV, religious, and World Link TV come to mind (but
     C-SPAN and its brethren *aren't* free, so count them if they're
     on your favorites list).

   - PEG access channels don't count; you get these free with CATV and
     they're not available with DBS.

   - If you get your service from a CATV company, add the franchise fee
     to the total, before taxes.  For most CATVs, the official published
     franchise fee is 5% of gross; that works out to about 5.26% of net.

   - If you get DirecTV from an NRTC affiliate (e.g., Pegasus), include
     the $1.75 royalty fee.

   - Include state and local taxes on top of everything else.

If any readers out there have more accurate information about actual 
license fees, please let us know, so we can all refine our calculations.

       ========================================
                     EDITORIAL
       ========================================

    "Every individual necessarily labours to render the
    annual revenue of the society as great as he can.  He
    generally neither intends to promote the public interest,
    nor knows how much he is promoting it ... He intends
    only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other
    cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which
    was no part of his intention.  Nor is it always the worse
    for society that it was no part of his intention.  By
    pursuing his own interest he frequently promotes that of
    the society more effectually than when he really intends
    to promote it."
                 -- Adam Smith.  "An Inquiry into the Nature
                    and Causes of the Wealth of Nations" (1776).

ESPN is what it is today *because* it's a basic service that *every*
basic subscriber contributes to.  And because ESPN is what it is, it
attracts more people to subscribe to basic CATV/DBS service.  These
new subscribers contribute more money to ESPN, so ESPN can do a better
job serving its audience.  These new subscribers also contribute more
money to other programming services so that they can do a better job
of serving their audiences.

Read that paragraph again, but replace the word "ESPN" with the name
of your favorite basic channel.

In the aggregate, each program service receives more revenue as more
subscribers are added, allowing it to do a better job of serving its
particular audience.  And by so doing, it increases the value of the
basic service for all subscribers.

This is Adam Smith's invisible hand at work.

Do we really want a-al-carte pricing?

       ========================================
                     FOOTNOTES
       ========================================

[1] The cable television must-carry provisions were enacted by
Congress as part of the Cable Television Consumer Protection and
Competition Act of 1992.  The FCC published implementation rules in
the Code of Federal Regulations at 47 CFR 76.56.  Several parties
brought suit to overturn the must-carry provisions of the Act; the
Supreme Court ultimately upheld them in TURNER BROADCASTING SYSTEM,
INC., et al. v. FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION et al.  Public
release of former Justice Harry Blackmun's papers provides a look at
how the court reached this decision (thanks to Monty Solomon for
bringing the Blackmun article to my attention [TD 23:138]).  Further
information:

   - Full text of Cable Act of 1992 <http://tinyurl.com/3s2j>.
   - FCC 47 CFR 76.56               <http://tinyurl.com/2sjzr>.
   - Full text of TURNER decision   <http://tinyurl.com/2fqf4>.
   - Article about TURNER decision  <http://tinyurl.com/27r5l>.
   - Article about Justice Blackmun <http://tinyurl.com/393c3>.

[2] Exceptions exist for large DMAs (e.g. Paducah KY-Cape Girardeau
MO-Mount Vernon IL) where an in-DMA transmitter might be so far away
that the signal can't be received off-the-air at the CATV headend.  In
such cases, the station may enforce must-carry if, and only if, it
makes technical arrangements to deliver a usable signal to the
headend.

[3] The DBS must-carry provisions were enacted by Congress as part of
the Satellite Home Viewing Improvement Act of 1999.  The FCC published
implementation rules in the Code of Federal Regulations at 47 CFR
76.66.  The Satellite Broadcasting & Communications Association,
joined by DirecTV and EchoStar, brought suit to overturn the
must-carry provisions of the Act; these rules were upheld by the
Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in SATELLITE BROAD. v FCC.  The
Supreme Court refused to review the case, thereby letting the Fourth
Circuit's decision stand.  Further information:

   - Full text of SHVIA Act of 1999 <http://tinyurl.com/2pu26>.
   - FCC fact sheet about SHVIA     <http://tinyurl.com/yuuwb>.
   - FCC 47 CFR 76.66               <http://tinyurl.com/2lj4j>.
   - Full text of SATELLITE BROAD   <http://tinyurl.com/3aztl>.

[4] According to the FAA, the premium for launch insurance approaches
15% of the cost of the launch vehicle itself.  Federal Aviation
Administration, Associate Administrator for Commercial Space
Transportation.  Fourth Quarter 2002 Quarterly Launch
Report. "Commercial Space and Launch Insurance: Current Market and
Future Outlook."  <http://ast.faa.gov/files/pdf/q42002.pdf>, page 14
(PDF page 7).

[5] Every state has at least one "one-call" notification 
center.  <http://tinyurl.com/2mmoo>.

[6] CATV companies are responsible for the signal quality and leakage 
integrity of inside wiring.  <http://tinyurl.com/283a7>.

[7] A description of the geostationary satellite orbit is at 
<http://www.sbe24.org/techdocs/Geosat/satgeomt.asp>.

      -------------

Obligatory disclosure: I'm a retired cable guy (Comcast, Niall, TCI,
and Warner) now living in Texas where I subscribe to DirecTV because
my local cable company (Cebridge Connections) doesn't carry C-SPAN2,
PBSYOU, or NewsWorld International.  Like <ellis@no.spam>, I have no
use for sports channels, shopping channels, channels that aren't in
English, soap opera channels, or Fox News.  But I still pay for them.

Neal McLain
nmclain@annsgarden.com

------------------------------

Date: Fri, 09 Apr 2004 08:33:59 -0500
From: John Beaman <jbeaman@good-sam.com>
Subject: Subject: Re: Livewire: When You've Got to Google Better, Ask


Actually, this is not entirely Google's fault.  The adult site you =
mentioned is listed because they have a list of BBQ restaurants in the =
Portland area.  I assume it's so you can take your "escort" out to a nice =
place to eat.

John Bartley <johnbartley@email.com> stated:

> This article only scratches the surface.

> The new Local Search at Google
> http://local.google.com

> When I enter BBQ and my zip code, it does find the best BBQ restaurant
> in town:

> Buster's Texas Style Barbecue
> (503) 652-1076
> 17833 SE McLoughlin Blvd
> Milwaukee, OR 97267
> 1.0 mi S  - Directions

> It also lists, right next to that family restaurant:

> PORTLAND ESCORTS, ADULT GUIDE, ADULT ENTERTAINMENT ...
> Adult Help Wanted Wants YOU....! Post your Resume ...
> lovelyescorts.com - and more related pages.

> Lemme tell ya, Busters was underthrilled with their new virtual
> Nneighbor when I gave them a heads up.  And, there is no reason for
> the adjacent listing, as that other 'enterprise' does not have a
> phyisical presence anywhere near Milwaukee ... it's in the next
> county up.

The Evangelical Lutheran Good Samaritan Society.

------------------------------

From: jmeissen@aracnet.com
Subject: Re: Cell Phones Exceed Land Lines in Maine
Date: 9 Apr 2004 16:23:11 GMT
Organization: http://extra.newsguy.com


> [TELECOM Digest Editor's Note: I wonder if the 'Peter Reilly' referred
> to above is/was the technical book publisher by the same name with
> various technical works on the net and in bookstores.  PAT]

You're thinking of O'Reilly and Associates.
http://www.oreilly.com/


John Meissen                                           jmeissen@aracnet.com

------------------------------

From: VOIP News <voip news>
Date: Fri, 09 Apr 2004 14:20:19 -0400
Subject: Commentary: Heads up VoIP -- Regulation Incoming
Reply-To: VoIPnews@yahoogroups.com


Everyone has their opinions -- this is perhaps one of the more pessimistic views, but the last four paragraphs (not shown below) are worth reading.

http://news.com.com/2030-7352_3-5188097.html

Commentary: Heads up VoIP--regulation incoming 
By Forrester Research
Special to CNET News.com

By Lisa Pierce, Vice President 

Although the Federal Communication Commission has indicated that it
favors applying a light hand on regulation of voice over Internet
Protocol, it's clear that VoIP will not completely escape either
regulation or taxation.

The FCC's stance, taken in its recent Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on
IP Services, could be especially problematic for VoIP providers with
business cases that are heavily dependent upon avoiding specific
functions the FCC requires of telecommunications service providers --
and thus escaping telecommunications-related fees and taxes.

For instance, there is no federal requirement for VoIP services to
interconnect with operator, directory assistance, 911 or E911
services. VoIP services are not required to support local number
portability or to pay into the Federal Universal Services Fund. All
this could change.

Customers who use services that have not incurred these types of costs
should anticipate that they will, and they should also expect prices
to rise as a result. Such well-known VoIP upstart providers as Vonage
and Net2Phone could find themselves forced to raise their prices as
regulatory fees are assessed. Consequently, given a shrinking cost gap
between incumbents who offer VoIP services and new providers, some
VoIP services or carriers will cease to exist. Providers that don't
have the cash flow from a broad portfolio of services are at the
greatest risk.

Expect the FCC's future VoIP ruling to be issued after Nov. 2--this is
an election year -- and to be purposefully vague, which will create
market uncertainty. That will dampen the pace of provider VoIP service
deployment and adoption, especially by business customers.

Full commentary at:
http://news.com.com/2030-7352_3-5188097.html

How to Distribute VoIP Throughout a Home:
http://michigantelephone.mi.org/distribute.html

If you live in Michigan, subscribe to the MI-Telecom group:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/MI-Telecom/

------------------------------

From: hancock4@bbs.cpcn.com (Lisa Hancock)
Subject: Re: IBM System/360 40 Years Old Today
Date: 9 Apr 2004 16:07:35 -0700
Organization: http://groups.google.com


herber@dcdrjh.fnal.gov (Randolph J. Herber) wrote 

Thank you for the comprehensive comments.

> 	But, these machines [1401] were slow:
> 	each character processed, even the characters in the
> 	instructions, required 11 microseconds of CPU time.  

According to the Campbell-Kelly-Aspray (sp?) book, the biggest feature
of the 1401 was not the CPU but rather the fast and clean 1403
printer.  I would guess that the 1401 CPU was hardware bound-- meaning
the slow printer and reader determined throughput, but the fast 1403
was a big improvement over what else was out there at the time.  The
big machines used the 1401 as a spooler.

I know many programmers who have a warm feeling of the 1401.
 
> 	What made it such a success was this was the first
> 	architecture from IBM that was available with a very wide
> 	price and performance range were the vendor promised that if
> 	one wrote their programs to a certain not particularly
> 	difficult standard then the program would execute correctly
> 	across the entire range and where the architecture was
> 	reasonably good for I/O, numerical computation, data movement
> 	and character processing.  It was one of the very first such
> 	architectures in the world.

I can't help but wonder if today's telephone systems, made from many
different manufacturers, share that upward compatibility.  That is, if
a company wanted to upgrade from a small PBX to a bigger one, would
it's staff have to relearn everything?

> 	IBM received several surprises with these machines.  Operating
> 	System proved to be much harder than they expected to write
> 	(at one time IBM had over 2000 programmers working on its
> 	development).  

Their programming leader, Fred Brooks, said "the bearing of a child
will take 9 months no matter how many women are assigned", and,
"adding people to a late project will just make it later".
 
> 	No, specifically, except for such models as the 22 and the 44,
> 	all machines _could_ have all instructions.  Some models had
> 	optional floating point instructions, for example.  But, those
> 	models could have them!  

True.  I forgot in those days the instruction set was divided into
three parts (IIRC), a basic, commercial, and floating point or
combined as a universal instruction set.

My employer, with an old S/360-40, allowed another firm to use our
machine since their -40 didn't support floating point and ours
happened to (not that we ever used it).

> 	(Remember the Intel 80387 floating point
> 	unit and how it was emulated in some personal computers?)

Today, we forget that electronics was so expensive back then.  As you
said, on the first generations of x86 PCs floating point was simulated
or purchased as an optional CPU add-on chip.
 
>> 5) A sophisticated operating system: While earlier machines had some
>> control programs, S/360 had sophisticated support services.  Simple
>> machines had none.

> 	Program memory isolation, dynamic program loading and large
> 	memory models come to mind.

Hopefully the "WinTel" PC world will eventually catch on to that.

Thanks again for your post.

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